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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The rise of the US dollar is paused, and this week's non-agricultural data will be absent again!". Hope this helps you! Original content below:
On November 3, the US dollar (USD) started the new week in a relatively quiet manner after outperforming its major edoyoko.competitors last week. In the second half of the day, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) data for October.
After experiencing violent fluctuations last week, the market was still in the repair stage on Monday, and risk sentiment generally remained stable. Investors' focus this week turns to a slew of private economic data that may reveal the latest clues about the health of the U.S. labor market.
Currently, the U.S. government shutdown is still continuing—the second-longest shutdown in U.S. history, second only to the 35-day crisis from 2018 to 2019. This means official economic data will not be released, including the non-farm payrolls report (NFP) and JOLTS job openings data.
As a result, investors will turn to ADP private sector employment data to judge the direction of U.S. monetary policy. ADP data is expected to be released later this week.
After Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made cautious edoyoko.comments about policy easing earlier last week, several Fed policymakers echoed his tone, noting that another rate cut in December may not be easy. In turn, the U.S. Dollar Index maintained its bullish momentum, climbing to its highest level since early August on Friday, above 99.80. Earlier on Monday, the index was still consolidating around 99.70. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures were mixed in early European trade after Wall Street's main indexes edged higher on Friday.
Earlier in the day, data from China showed that business activity in the manufacturing sector expanded at a moderate pace in October.degree expansion, the RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was 50.6. The reading missed market expectations of 50.9.
After closing in negative territory for three consecutive days, the EUR/USD gained a firm foothold on Monday and fluctuated within a narrow range below 1.1550.
AUD/USD recovered slightly around 0.6550 after closing essentially flat last week. During the Asian session on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its monetary policy decision. The market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.6%.
USD/JPY climbed last week to its highest level since February, near 154.50. The pair stabilized towards the end of the week as Japanese officials intervened verbally, noting that they continue to monitor FX markets closely. Earlier on Monday, USD/JPY was trading sideways, just above 154.00.
GBP/USD fell more than 1% last week and briefly fell below 1.3100 on Friday. The pair struggled to gain recovery momentum on Monday, trading around 1.3150.
Gold prices stabilized above $4,000 to start the new week.
Euro: The intraday bias of EUR/USD remains in a downward trend. The current decline from 1.1917 should target the 1.1390 support. A break above this point will extend the decline to the 38.2% retracement level of 1.0176 to 1.1917, 1.1252. On the upside, minor resistance above 1.1576 will turn neutral, bringing consolidation first and then another decline.
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