The U.S. dollar index fell below the 99 mark, Trump spoke out!

On October 13, in early Asian trading on Monday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 98.98. Last Friday, the U.S. dollar index plunged intraday, falling below the 99 mark, and finally closed down 0.56% at 98.835, ending four consecutive days of gains. U.S. bond yields jumped across the board, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield closing at 4.036% and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate, closing at 3.512%. As risk aversion resumed, spot gold rose back above $4,000 per ounce, eventually closing up 0.87% at $4,010.43 per ounce, recording eight consecutive positive weeks; spot silver once touched $51 per ounce, but fell back in late trading, finally closing up 1.51% at $49.973 per ounce. International crude oil fell sharply as the demand outlook was once again gloomy. WTI crude oil continued to fall, falling below the $58 mark, and finally closed down 5.32% at $57.879/barrel, a five-month low and the largest one-day decline since June 23; Brent crude oil finally closed down 4.48% at $62.04/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 98.98. The trend of the U.S. dollar index last week was full of twists and turns. From the beginning of the week to Thursday, thanks to the significant weakness in the euro and the yen, the U.S. dollar index climbed strongly, recording its largest weekly gain since September 2024. Technically, the U.S. Dollar Index is trying to close below support at 98.85–99.00. If this attempt is successful, the USD Index will move towards the next support level, which is located in the 98.00–98.20 range.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1610. The euro also underperformed last week. Although it rebounded 0.5% on Friday against the backdrop of the US dollar's correction, closing at 1.1622, the EURUSD still recorded its largest weekly decline since July this year, with a cumulative decline of 1.00%. The continued political turmoil in France is the main reason for dragging down the euro. The market believes that the euro will remain under pressure until the political impasse in France finds a reliable solution. At present, early parliamentary elections are unlikely, as polls show that the two major opposition parties will still dominate. Technically, if EUR/USD closes above the resistance at 1.1585–1.1600, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.1685–1.1700.

Sterling: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3347. The Bank of England’s cautious policy tone has become an important force supporting the pound. The U.S. Senate remains locked in a budget impasse, failing to pass legislation to end the shutdown. The rise in safe-haven demand has led some investors to reallocate to US dollar assets, suppressing further gains in the pound. Technically, a successful test of the 1.3330–1.3350 resistance would open the way to a test of the 50 EMA at 1.3425.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

In Asian trading on Monday, gold hovered around 4039.2. Gold prices extended gains to around $4,040. Escalating trade tensions between the United States and China have provided some support for precious metals. Traders awaited when the U.S. government will reopen and release data that will influence Federal Reserve policy.

Technical: The technical daily chart shows that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has left the extreme overbought zone, but is still close to 75. This leading indicator suggests that buyers may regain their energy and gold prices may once again test the all-time high of $4,059 per ounce. If it continues to break through this level, gold prices are expected to test $4,100 per ounce (the upper edge of the ascending channel). On the downside, gold needs to close the week below $3,962/oz (the lower edge of the ascending channel) to continue correcting and move toward the round-figure mark of $3,900/oz. If gold slides further, the October 2 low of $3,819 per ounce will be the next target for sellers, which is close to the 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Monday’s Asian session, crude oil was trading around 59.26. Trump's latest tariff threat clouds the outlook for demand in an already oversupplied market. The drop in oil prices is the result of multiple factors, with Trump's threat to impose significant tariffs being just the latest. Increased production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), additional supply growth in North and South America, and the easing of geopolitical risks after the Gaza ceasefire agreement are all negative factors superimposed on Trump's tariff threats. Investors are also worried that a prolonged U.S. government shutdown could weaken the U.S. economy, thereby suppressing demand in the world's largest crude consumer.

Technical: Crude oil fell last week, breaking through the key Fibonacci support level of $59.91 to close at $58.90 - the lowest closing price since June 4. The breakdown reflects intensifying bearish momentum, with downside potential extending to the late May bottom of $55.74 if the sell-off continues into Monday. While a move back above $59.91 could signal a technical rebound, traders remain cautious given the broader bearish structure. Resistance is at the 62.90-day moving average at $50 and the 63.00-day moving average at $200, both of which cap attempts to the upside. The recent bearish crossover, with 50-day oil falling below 200-day oil, further highlights the fragile technical setup.

October 13, 2025 Foreign Exchange Market Transaction Reminder

① China’s September trade balance to be determined

② Domestic refined oil products to be determined to open a new round of price adjustment window

③ The World Bank and IMF to hold their autumn annual meetings

④ To be determined OPEC monthly announcement Crude oil market report

⑤The Federal Reserve Paulson gave a speech at 00:10 the next day

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