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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Focusing on the release of the annual benchmark correction data of non-agricultural benchmarks, the EU plans to launch the 19th round of sanctions against Russia." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On September 9, during the Asian session on Tuesday, spot gold was trading around $3,631/ounce. As weak US labor market data strengthened the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts next week, gold prices continued to hit a historical high to $3,646.23/ounce on Monday, and gold prices are expected to continue to rise to around 3,700-3,730 in the short term; US crude oil trading around $62.45/barrel, oil prices closed higher on Monday, regaining some of the declines last week. Previously, OPEC+ chose to increase production slightly, and investors also digested the possibility of more sanctions on Russian crude oil.
The dollar continued its decline on Monday, with weak U.S. jobs report last Friday, almost confirming that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. The yen fell after Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation over the weekend.
The euro has little reaction to the news that the French parliament voted to remove Prime Minister Beiru on Monday. The French parliament overturned the government's plan to control the inflated state debt, deepening the political crisis and hitting the eurozone's second largest economy.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation last Sunday, and the world's fourth largest economy will usher in a period of potentially long policy uncertainty. This pushed the yen to fall across the board. The dollar rose 0.2% against the yen to 147.695 yen.
But the market's attention remains firmly locked in the dollar, with Friday's non-farm employment data stunning, strengthening expectations that the Fed will resume interest rate cuts at its policy meeting later this month.
MarcChand, Chief Marketing Strategist at BannockburnForex"The driver of the foreign exchange market is still the development of the US dollar and the US. People can talk about Japanese politics, but the real driving force of the US dollar/yen is not Japanese politics, nor Japanese interest rates. It is the US interest rate. The market believes that the probability of a 50 basis point cut is about 10%, and the US dollar is falling."
The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data shows that the federal funds rate futures market believes that the probability of a 25 basis point cut this month is 90%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 10%.
Australia's NAB business confidence index fell from 8 to 4 in August, but the situation improved, rising from 5 to 7. The transaction volume was stable at 12 people, while profitability increased from 2 to 4 people, and employment increased from 2 to 5 people. NAB chief economist Sally Auld said the results support the view that “the corporate outlook continues to improve”, with confidence and situations now approaching the long-term average.
Capacity utilization rate rose from 82.5% to 83.1%, two percentage points higher than the long-term normal level. Capital expenditure intentions also improved, climbing from 8 to 10. In short, these all show that despite wider uncertainty, enterprises still operate at a high level of resource use.
At the same time, cost pressure has been further alleviated. Procurement cost growth slowed from 1.3% to 1.1%, the lowest level since 2021, while labor costs slowed from 1.9% to 1.5%, and product price growth fell from 0.8% to 0.6%. The survey pointed out that business activities are flexible and have a tight environment, but inflationary pressures continue to fade.
European investor confidence deteriorated sharply in September, with the Sentix confidence index falling from -3.7 to -9.2, well below the expected -1.1, the lowest level since April. The current situation index weakened from -13.0 to -18.8, while the expected index fell from 6.0 to 0.8.
Germany is a clear weakness. Its investor confidence plummeted from -12.8 to -22.1, while the status quo index fell from -29.0 to -39.0. Expectations turned negative again, falling from 5.0 to -3.5, underscoring the growing pessimism about Europe's largest economy getting rid of the recession.
Sentix attributes the economic downturn to political and external adverse factors: instability in the French government, continued weakness in German industry, adverse tariff arrangements with the United States, and ongoing Ukrainian wars. It said these factors are "oppressing" the euro zone sentiment.
The institute warned that summer optimism has “quickly disintegrated” and there are few signs of a rebound in the fall. As export-oriented industries face greater pressure under U.S. tariffs and growing concerns about sovereign debt – especially in France – the outlook for the eurozone remains fragile by the end of the year.
U.S. Senate panel will make a statement on WednesdayMilan's Fed director nomination will be voted on, and a full vote will be held after approval.
New York Fed survey: People expect unemployment rate and unemployment risks to rise, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next week.
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