The overall CPI of the United States remained flat in July, and the US dollar index fell sharply

On August 13, in the early trading of Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.04. On Tuesday, U.S. inflation rose only modestly in July, retaining the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut next month. The US dollar index fell sharply, returning to near the 98 mark, and finally closed down 0.44% to 98.03; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.294%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.741%. Spot gold fluctuated back and forth around the 3350 mark and finally closed up 0.16%, closing at $3347.98/ounce; spot silver closed up 0.73%, at $37.88/ounce. Crude oil resumed its downward trend, WTI crude oil began to fall during the European session and once fell to an intraday low of $62.44, finally closing down 1.3% to $62.45/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 0.85% to $65.70/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$98.04. After the release of the U.S. consumer price index data in July, market expectations for the Fed's next policy meeting to cut interest rates, and the dollar weakened. The Fed had room for interest rate cuts in September, given inflation was under control and signs of weak labor markets. The narrowing of yield spread and the resilience of major foreign currencies suggest that if Powell sends signals that he is preparing for further sharp rate cuts at Jackson Hall annual meeting, the U.S. dollar index may face continued selling pressure and downward towards key support levels. Technically, the U.S. dollar index is trying to close below support level 98.00–98.20. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move to the next support level, which is in the range of 97.10–97.30.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1675. Influenced by U.S. mixed inflation data and U.S. President Trump’s threat to sue Fed Chairman Powell. The economic schedules of the United States and the European Union will be very busy on Wednesday. In the United States, Fed activities will continue, with Fed regional chairmen Thomas Bakin, Ostan Goulsby and Raphael Bostic speaking. The EU's schedule will include the German and Spanish CPI on Wednesday. Technically, if the EUR/USD closes above resistance level 1.1685–1.1700, it will move towards the next resistance level 1.1800–1.1815.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3501. The release of economic data from the UK (UK) and the US (US) has benefited the GBP (GBP) relative to the US dollar (USD). The economic calendar will usher in a calm Wednesday, with no significant content on the data agenda. Another round of UK/U.S. economic data releases will be held on Thursday, starting with quarterly UK GDP growth. Technically, successfully testing the resistance level 1.3485–1.3500 will open the road for testing the next resistance level 1.3570–1.3585.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

In the Asian session on Wednesday, gold hovered around 3344.85. Gold rebounded near a multi-day low of $3,330, as markets expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. Federal Reserve officials, including Ostan Goulsby and Raphael Bostic, are scheduled to speak later on Wednesday.

Technical: From a technical perspective, the December gold futures bulls have a clear advantage in the overall technical aspects in the near future, but their advantages have weakened today. The next upside target for the bulls is to close above the strong resistance level of $3500.00. The next near-term downside target for bears is to push futures prices below the strong technical support level of the July low of $3319.20. The first resistance is at today's high of $3408.70, followed by $3450.00. The first support is at $3375.00, followed by $3350.00.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading was around 62.48. Oil prices fell on Tuesday, as traders waited for U.S. Energy edoyoko.comrmation Administration (EIA) stock reports and starts to focus on signs of potential decline in demand at the end of the summer driving season in early September. This trading day will welcome speeches from Richmond Fed Chairman Balkin, Chicago Fed Chairman Goulsby and Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic. Investors need to pay attention.

Technical: Before one of the new geopolitical or economic triggers appears, oil prices are more likely to consolidate sideways in the range of $62.70 to $66.60. Buyers seem willing to defend when oil prices fall near $63, but the market has not shown strength to break through $66.64. I will still see the pullback as a potential buying opportunity – but if Friday’s meeting brings unexpected situations, the follow-up trend remains to be seen.

Forex market trading reminder on August 13, 2025

①10:00State edoyoko.comrmation Office held a press conference

②14:00German July CPI final value

③16:00IEA released its monthly crude oil market report

④22:30EIA crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to August 8

⑤22:30EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to August 8

⑥22:30EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to August 8

⑥22:30EIA to August 8 IA Strategic Oil Reserve Inventory

⑦Feder Gulsby delivered a speech on monetary policy at 01:00 the next day

⑧Feder Bostic delivered a speech on the outlook for the US economy

⑨The next day

The Bank of Canada released minutes of the monetary policy meeting

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