Civil strife broke out in the United States, and non-farmers once again suppressed Fed rate cut expectations

On June 9, in the early trading of Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.17. Last Friday, the US dollar index rose, recovering the 99 mark and finally closed up 0.491% to 99.22 as non-farm data exceeded expectations. The yield on the US Treasury rose sharply, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rising by more than 10 basis points to close at 4.512%, and the yield on the 2-year US Treasury exceeded 4%, closing at 4.045%. Spot gold continued to fall after the non-agricultural data was released, falling below the $3310 mark for a time, and finally closed down 1.22%, closing at $3311.68/ounce; spot silver continued its upward trend, but failed to stand firm above $36/ounce, and finally closed up 0.9% to $35.954/ounce, with a cumulative increase of more than 9% throughout the week. International crude oil rose for the second consecutive day as concerns that an economic slowdown would curb crude oil demand eased. WTI crude oil station rose 64 USD/barrel and finally closed up 2.36% to $64.11 USD/barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 2.04% to $66.37 USD/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 99.17. The dollar rose 0.47% against other major currencies last Friday to close at 99.20 as data showed better-than-expected employment growth in May, although growth slowed down from last month, suggesting that the Fed may wait longer before cutting interest rates. In addition, the US dollar has beenPresident Trump's tariff policy and uncertainty over the prospects for negotiations with trading partners, including China, bills that the U.S. Senate is considering after the House passed the deficit spending and tax bill and drag on the recent trajectory of economic data. Technically, the U.S. dollar index is trying to close above resistance at 99.00–99.20. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move towards the next resistance level 100.20–100.40.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1395. After the U.S. employment data was released on Friday, the euro expanded its decline against the dollar, with New York falling 0.43% to $1.1395 in late trading. The euro has risen about 10% against the dollar so far this year. This week's Eurozone (EU) economic schedule will include ECB's monetary analysis survey and industrial production data. The U.S. schedule will include inflation data on consumer and producers, as well as the release of preliminary data on consumer confidence at the University of Michigan (UoM). Technically, if the EUR/USD falls below 50MA1.1374, it will move towards the support level of 1.1275–1.1290.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3525. Last week, GBP/USD traders rely on news from the U.S. due to scarce economic schedule in the UK. In addition, the pound is expected to rise by more than 0.80% this week, supported by a general weakening of the dollar. This week's UK economic schedule will include employment data and GDP data for April. Meanwhile, the U.S. schedule will release its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. Technically, falling below 50MA1.3515 will open up a path for testing the support level of 1.3420–1.3440.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold trading around 3306.87. Large-scale riots in Los Angeles, the United States have attracted some safe-haven buying to support gold prices. In the next week, the market will usher in trade negotiations between major powers and heavy US CPI data, and investors need to pay attention to it. On Monday (June 9), the US New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation in May. In addition, at the invitation of the British government, He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central edoyoko.committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will visit the UK from June 8 to 13. During this period, the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will be held with the United States. Investors need to pay attention.

Technical: Gold buyers must close above the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at $3377/oz at the daily/week closing price to resume the recent uptrend and rise to an all-time high of $3500/oz; before that, buyers must overcome the May high of $3439/oz. On the downside, once the gold price falls below the downward trend line resistance level - support at $3318/oz, sellers may try to control the situation. The next strong support level for gold prices is at $3297/oz at the above confluence. If gold falls further, gold prices will challenge the 50-day moving average of $3262/oz; if it falls below this level, the buyer's last line of defense is $3232/oz, that is, the 50% Fibonacci level of the above upward trend.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trend

On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading around 63.80. Crude oil prices rose more than $1 last Friday, marking the first weekly increase in three weeks. Thanks to the positive US employment report and the restart of trade negotiations, this has increased people's hope for growth of the two major economies in the world. In the next week, the market will usher in trade negotiations between major powers and heavy US CPI data, and investors need to pay attention. On Monday (June 9), the US New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation in May. In addition, at the invitation of the British government, He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central edoyoko.committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will visit the UK from June 8 to 13. During this period, the first meeting of the Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will be held with the United States. Investors need to pay attention.

Technical: On the daily chart, WTI crude oil is adjacent to a major resistance level, that is, the level around $65, which will become a key position for the market to pay close attention to. If it can break this level, oil prices may open up a new round of upward space. At a lower level, $60 is the main support level. As long as oil prices remain above this level, the market may still be in the category of "buy on dips". If it rises above $65, the first target will point to the key 200-day index moving average (EMA), which is close to $69. If this level is further broken, oil prices may open up greater fluctuations and move towards the $72.50 level. .

Forex market trading reminder on June 9, 2025

09:30 China's May CPI annual rate

22:00 United States April wholesale sales monthly rate

23:00 United States May New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Civil strife broke out in the United States, and non-farm farmers once again suppressed the Fed's interest rate cut expectations". It was carefully edoyoko.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thank you for your support!

Living in the present, don't waste in missing the past or looking forward to the futureLose your current life.