The U.S. GDP fell unexpectedly in the first quarter, and the U.S. index fell below 97 for a while

On June 27, early trading in Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.369. On Thursday, the dollar index fell below 97 intraday, the first time since March 2022, and finally closed down 0.37% at 97.35 points as media reports said Trump was considering announcing Powell's successor as early as September. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2390%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.7280%. The 5-year/30-year yield difference in the United States exceeded 101 basis points, the steepest since 2021. The U.S. GDP unexpectedly fell in the first quarter, but initial data and actual personal consumption expenditure were favorable to gold prices. Spot gold remained stable, and fell back after hitting the intraday high of $3,350, and finally closed down 0.17% to close at $3,327.68/ounce; spot silver hit its highest level since June 18, and finally closed up 0.99% to $36.60/ounce. Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday as the summer driving season arrived, U.S. crude oil inventories fell due to increased demand. WTI crude oil closed up 0.43% to $65.16 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.47% to $67.91 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 97.36. Because policy tensions between Trump and Powell have curbed their risk aversion needs. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that before considering rate cuts, central banks need more time to measure the impact of tariffs on inflation. Technically, the most recent support level of the US dollar index is in the range of 96.70–96.90. Break below this level will drive the dollar index downto the next support level 95.40–95.60.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1689. The euro/dollar surged to nearly four-year highs on Thursday, continuing its rally for five consecutive days, with the pair breaking through the 1.1700 level for the first time since September 2021. Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates earlier than expected push major currency pairs to annual highs of 1.1744 before falling back to 1.1697, up 0.33%. Technically, if the EUR/USD remains above resistance level 1.1675–1.1690, it will move to the next resistance level 1.1785–1.1800.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3729. The GBP/USD rose on Thursday, gaining strongly for the fourth straight day and breaking through a 44-month high around 1.3770. The widespread sell-off of the dollar has supported the dollar's main relative currency, helping the pound hit its highest bid in nearly four years. Technically, breaking through the 1.3750 level will open up the way to test the next resistance level, which is within the range of 1.3815–1.3835.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Friday, gold trading around 3314.80. Gold is struggling to rebound despite the dollar approaching a three-and-a-half-year low and U.S. Treasury yields plummeted. ??? (US) Strong economic data prevented gold prices from rising, although market participants were slightly ahead of themselves and expected to cut interest rates twice by the end of 2025. U.S. employment data shows that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States is lower than expected, while durable goods orders exceeded expectations in May. The final printing of GDP in the first quarter of 2025 confirmed that the economy lost traction and contracted more than expected, with an amplitude greater than the previous value.

Technical: Gold price is still tilting upward, although it hovers around the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the momentum is already slightly bearish and the price action is achieving higher highs and higher lows, which may pave the way for some sideways consolidation. To continue bullish, gold must climb above $3,400. The following key resistance is at $3,450, followed by an all-time high of $3,500. Conversely, if gold breaks below $3,300, the first support will be the May 29 lows of $3,245 and $3,200.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading was around 64.86. Investors cheered and oil prices plummeted after Israel and Iran announced a formal ceasefire agreement on Tuesday. The Middle East tensions that broke out when Israel attacked Iran on June 12 highlighted the sensitivity of prices to potential damage to the Strait of Hormuz. WTI oil fell by about $10.00 a barrel in 24 hours as the market accepted the possibility of a truce between Israel and Iran. However, the inventory report released this week shifts attention to supply and demand dynamics. WTI's price peaked at $76.74 on Monday before falling to a low of $63.73 on Tuesday. Wednesday's EIA report showed oil inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels in the past week, surpassing analysts' expectations of 600K barrels.

Technical: Crude oil attempted to close above the resistance level of $66.00-$66.50, but lost momentum and pulled back. If WTI crude oil falls below 50MA to $63.82, it will move towards the support level of $62.00 – $62.50.

Forex market trading reminder on June 27, 2025

14:45France June CPI monthly rate initial value

17:00Eurozone June industrial prosperity index

17:00Eurozone June economic prosperity index

19:30Feder Williams presided over the meeting

20:30Canada April GDP monthly rate

20:30U.S. core PCE price index annual rate

20:30U.S. personal expenditure monthly rate

20:30U.S. nuclear Xin PCE price index monthly rate

21:15 Federal Reserve Hamak and Director Cook attended the event

22:00 U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June

22:00 U.S. June 1st year inflation rate expected final value

The next day 01:00 U.S. to June 27 total oil drilling rigs

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