Trump slanders Powell again, focusing on Japan's CPI and UK retail sales to gather all attention

On June 20, in the early trading of Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.58. On Thursday, the US dollar index hit the 99 mark during the session and finally closed down 0.04% to 98.86 as market worries about the escalation of conflict in Iran. The yield on the US Treasury fell first and then rose, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield finally closing at 4.3960%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield closing at 3.9540%. Spot gold remained stable as investors weighed US inflation and the Middle East situation and finally closed up 0.03% to $3,370.31/ounce; spot silver finally closed down 0.91% to $36.37/ounce. The market is still worried about the potential blockade crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil opened low and closed high, touching $76 for a time, but failed to recover lost territory and finally closed down 1.28% to $73.81 per barrel; Brent crude oil rose 3.5% to $78.69 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.58. The dollar has returned to a safe haven due to fears that the Middle East conflict will escalate into regional wars under US intervention. The dollar index expanded its gains for the fourth consecutive day, hitting an intraday low of 98.70 before falling back. Technically, the U.S. dollar index is trying to close above resistance at 99.00–99.20. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move to the next resistance level 100.20–100.40.

Euro: As of press time, Euro/USDHovering around 1.1512. EUR/USD changed little on Thursday as risk appetite worsened and growing speculation about the US (US) likely to be involved in the Middle East conflict. The White House poured cold water on the rumors, saying that Trump would decide to attack Iran "in the next two weeks." Technically, if the EUR/USD falls below the recent support level 1.1410–1.1425, it will move to the next support level 1.1285–1.1300. RSI is in a mild area and there is a lot of motivation to gain room in the short term.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3485. The GBP/USD found some room at a high on Thursday, retracing above the 1.3450 level after an early technical rebound from the 1.3400 mark. As tensions in the Middle East continue to intensify, wide market capital flows have recently favored the dollar, but the U.S. market was bleaked by the National Day holiday on Thursday, giving the pound some breathing space and easing the dollar bid. Technically, if the pound/USD successfully closes below the 1.3420 level, it will move towards the next support level 1.3260–1.3280

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

On the Asian session on Friday, gold trading around 3367.18. Trump is weighing his diplomatic retreat as reports from multiple U.S. news websites such as the Wall Street Journal and CBS News show that U.S. President Trump has approved a plan to attack Iran's nuclear facilities and geopolitical factors continue to drive fluctuations in gold prices.

Technical: Gold is consolidating around $3347, and investors are unwilling to push the spot price to above $3400, which opens the door for a pullback. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that buyers are losing momentum as gold prices trade sideways. In order to resume bullish trends, gold must break through $3,400. Once a breakthrough is made, this will expose key resistance levels such as $3450 and the recent all-time high of $3500. Otherwise, if the bar falls below $3370, the pullback may extend to $3350 and hit the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) $3308. Once it falls below the April 3 high and turns to support at $3,167, further losses will appear.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading was around 73.63. With U.S. President Donald Trump announces that he will decide on the U.S. to participate in the Israel-Iran conflict within two weeks, WTThe price of I fell slightly. Bloomberg reported late Thursday that Trump will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran, as Israel hit more Iranian nuclear facilities and warned its attacks could overthrow Tehran's leadership. His latest stance shows that he took a step back after a series of tough edoyoko.comments, which dragged down WTI prices.

Technical: If WTI oil prices fall below the $75.00 level, it will move towards the $71.50 to $72.00 support level.

Forex market trading reminder on June 20, 2025

09:00 One-year loan market quotation rate from China to June 20

14:00 Germany May PPI monthly rate

14:00 UK May seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate

14:40 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda made a speech

20:30 Canada April retail sales monthly rate

20:30 US June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

22:0 0 The initial value of the consumer confidence index in the euro zone in June

22:00 The leading indicator monthly rate of the United States May Consultative Conference

The next day, 01:00, the total number of oil drilling rigs in the week from the United States to June 20

The next day, 02:30, the next day, the last transaction of New York crude oil July futures edoyoko.completed the final transaction on the market

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