Trump to hold off sanctions on Russia, Bank of Japan to keep interest rates stable

On June 17, early trading in the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.16. On Monday, the dollar index remained stable as investors were cautious about the Fed meeting, and recovered lost ground after breaking the 98 mark in the European session, and finally closed down 0.21% to 99.01. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.4560%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.9830%. Spot gold fell more than 1% after hitting an eight-week high and finally closed down 1.40% at $3,385.30/ounce; spot silver finally closed up 0.06% at $36.32/ounce. International oil prices fell more than $1 on Monday amid reports that Iran is seeking to end hostilities with Israel. WTI crude oil finally closed down 4.01% at $69.99 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 2.61% at $72.44 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.16. New concerns about the U.S.-China trade deal are weakening the dollar. Higher hopes for the Fed’s easing policy have increased pressure on the dollar ahead of this week’s meeting. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index remains below the 98.00 level, it will move towards the next support level in the 96.70–96.90 range.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1555. EUR/USD fell 0.25 on Friday as hostilities between Israel and Iran begin% rebounded, which boosted the attractiveness of the dollar. Nevertheless, the improvement in risk appetite has supported the euro as the two sides will continue to confront and the risk of morphing into regional conflicts is slightly reduced. Technically, if the EUR/USD successfully closes above the 1.1570 level, it will move to the next resistance level, which is in the range of 1.1685–1.1700.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3569. The pound/dollar fell back on risk aversion and plummeted to 1.3515 as Israel cracked down on Iran's military and nuclear facilities while targeted attacks on top officials. Since then, Iran has retaliated and the truce seems out of reach as the two sides fight each other. Technically, successful testing of resistance level 1.3620–1.3640 will open the way for testing the next resistance level 1.3735–1.3750.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Tuesday, gold trading around 3398.61. Spot gold rose above the $3,400 mark in the early trading. Earlier, a few minutes after Trump called on everyone to evacuate Tehran, the capital of Iran, several explosions occurred in Tehran, and the air defense system activated the intercepting target. This week, the United States will release retail sales, housing and business activity data disclosed by regional banks in the Federal Reserve. Despite the decline, gold is expected to rise slightly higher as major central banks such as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) may continue to buy frantically.

Technical: Although gold fell below $3,400, the rising trend of gold prices still exists. Price movements suggest that precious metals are maintaining their higher highs and higher lows market structures, confirming bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish, although buyers are losing some momentum as the RSI continues to aim downward at the neutral line. If it closes below $3,400, it is expected to pull back to the $3,350 area. A breakout above this level will put the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3,281, followed by a high support of $3,167 on April 3. On the other hand, if gold stays above $3400, look for a $3450 test as it clears the way for challenging the all-time high of $3500 in the near term.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Tuesday, crude oil trading around 72.834. After last week's soar, international crude oil prices fluctuated and pulled back. As the market spreads, Iran isGeographic tensions have eased slightly as news seeking a ceasefire with Israel, and investors' concerns about disrupted oil supply in the Middle East have cooled down.

Technical: From a technical perspective, crude oil is still well supported above the 200-day moving average of US$66.47. But resistance around $78.09 and $80.47 proves that it will be difficult to break upward without a substantial supply shock. With current supply lines intact and refining demand eased, the crude oil market appears to be consolidating around current levels for the time being. The oil market outlook is neutral to bearish unless the Strait of Hormuz faces credible threats.

Forex market trading reminder on June 17, 2025

①To be determined Domestic refined oil has opened a new round of price adjustment window

②To be determined Bank of Japan announced interest rate resolution

③14:30Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda held a press conference

④16:00IEA released monthly crude oil market report

⑤17:00Germany June ZEW Economic Prosperity Index

⑥17:00Eurozone June ZEW Economic Prosperity Index

⑦2 0:30 US retail sales monthly rate in May

⑧20:30 US import price index monthly rate in May

⑨21:15 US industrial output monthly rate in May

22:00 US June NAHB real estate market index

22:00 US April edoyoko.commercial inventory monthly rate

The next day 01:30 Bank of Canada released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting

The next day 04:30 US to June 13 API crude oil inventories

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